The chemical industry in most parts of the world is, at last, showing signs of recovery. And it is a welcome experience for company executives and employees, investors, researchers, and construction workers. The industry was suffering even before the recession officially began in March 2001, cutting profits, stock prices, workforces, and capital spending along with adding a host of other costs. This year’s world outlook, however, shows great variations among individual countries.
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In the U.S. in 2003, the chemical industry should show fairly solid growth in sales and earnings, though probably not at prerecessionary levels. Employment, R&D, and especially capital spending will grow as demand improves. However, the chemical trade deficit will swell.
In Canada, the recovery will continue on volume increases. Prices, which declined last year, are projected to stabilize in 2003, boosting revenues. Mexico, the other member of the NAFTA trio, will also show growth this year.
In other Latin American chemical-producing countries, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela are expected to show modest growth, although political instability remains a wild card in the region.
In Europe, the chemical industry in European Union countries will grow at about the same 3.0% rate seen in 2002, but growth in the so-called transition countries—consisting mainly of Southeast European and Commonwealth of Independent States nations—will outperform that of the EU nations.
Asia also has to be taken on a country-by-country basis, with chemical growth reflecting a range of performances, from a 7.2% increase in demand in China to continuing economic problems in Japan.
World Chemical Outlook this year was compiled byWilliam Storck, senior correspondent, and Alexander Tullo, associate editor, in New Jersey; Patricia Short, senior correspondent, in London; and Jean-François Tremblay, Hong Kong bureau head.
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