A top-ranking member of the British defense establishment deems the four-year-old Chemical Weapons Convention "a new instrument of diplomatic technology." Though he claims the treaty is "at the leading edge of arms control," he calls its implementation "a picture of ambiguity." The official spoke last week on background to a roundtable group hosted by the Chemical & Biological Arms Control Institute (CBACI) in Washington, D.C.

On the positive side, he says the treaty's existence "has drawn out knowledge of chemical stocks most were not aware existed," and destruction of these weapons is on target in three-fourths of the countries possessing them. The U.S., India, and an unidentified country--generally thought to be South Korea--have begun to destroy their chemical weapons. Only Russia, the possessor of the largest stockpile, has not. Plus, he says, "routine industry inspections have been carried out without undue burden to industry."

But the British official notes problems that have the potential for undermining the treaty's utility, including Russia's nonexistent destruction program. The financially strapped country is not likely to meet the treaty's 2007 deadline for destroying all chemical weapons. And it is expected to continue to ask for foreign assistance and to seek the five-year deadline extension allowed by the treaty.

Another problem, the official says, is "the serious budgetary difficulties" of the treaty's implementing organization in Geneva. Its budget has not changed since 1997, and if it is not increased, there could be serious cutbacks in verification activities. And, he adds, non-use of the treaty's challenge inspection provision means that concerns that some member countries are cheating cannot be proved or disproved.

Michael Moodie, president of CBACI, says Russia's nonexistent destruction program is viewed by some in Congress as "the single biggest challenge to the treaty." The U.S. is likely to resume funding construction of a nerve-agent destruction facility at Shchuch'ye, about 970 miles southeast of Moscow, but it's going to be an uphill battle in the U.S. House of Representatives, he says.

To date, the U.S. has been the largest underwriter of Russia's weapons destruction efforts. Moodie says the European Union's contribution to the program "has been minimal," and Japan's has been nonexistent.

The British official agrees that Europe has not done enough, but he believes that the greatest threat to the treaty's viability is suspected noncompliance going unchallenged.

The U.S. has been reluctant to launch a challenge inspection even though it has repeatedly accused Iran of violating the treaty. But a U.S. arms control official says the "U.S. is ready to meet its legal obligations under the treaty, and that means receiving a challenge inspection."

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