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COLUMBIA LOST
The loss of the space shuttle Columbia will have far-reaching policy implications for the U.S. manned space program and for the space shuttle in particular. That's the conclusion of many space policy experts, who add that an examination of the program is long overdue. "If there's a positive, it will be the tremendous focus on the space shuttle program," says Brian Chase, executive director of the National Space Society, Washington, D.C. "Funding for upgrades will be forthcoming. There will be increases for the shuttle program." House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood L. Boehlert (R-N.Y.) has pledged an investigation to focus on policy decisions that may have contributed to the Columbia tragedy. But the investigation, say committee staffers, will also concentrate on forward-looking policy questions--such as how today's investments are likely to affect the future of NASA and the space shuttle and space station programs. "There's a huge debate relative to what we do next in terms of human space flight," says Roger D. Launius, chair of the Space History Division at the Smithsonian Institution's National Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C. "Do we need to build a new, fourth orbiter to replace Columbia and to upgrade and modernize the [space shuttle] fleet? Or, on the other side, is it time to move on to a new generation of launch vehicle?" The most immediate policy questions concern ongoing operation of the International Space Station, of which the space shuttle is a vital component. A crew of three, two of them U.S. astronauts, is currently aboard the station, and at C&EN press time, they were still scheduled to return to Earth via space shuttle in early March. The crew could remain aboard the station for several more months, space experts say, returning on a shuttle or, if necessary, a Russian Soyuz space capsule. NASA officials and other space policy experts are predicting that the shuttle program will be shut down for as little as five months. That may not be overly optimistic. "From President Bush on down, the resolve is to go ahead with the space program," says John M. Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. "The space station is two-thirds built." In moving forward, however, "we need to tell the truth about how much things cost," says Donna L. Shirley, an aerospace and mechanical engineering instructor at the University of Oklahoma, Norman, and former manager of NASA's Mars Exploration Program. She says congressional appropriators have not had an opportunity to consider options for space exploration that might lead to a better, more efficient U.S. space program. Beyond the space shuttle, Shirley says, NASA ought to be considering a mix of expendable and reusable vehicles for accessing and commercializing outer space and making such voyages safer. Shirley says that better cost efficiencies for accessing space will attract industry and push commercialization. NASA, she says, ought to be giving a boost to smaller businesses in the aerospace industry that stand poised to help develop better and cheaper payload delivery systems and even space tourism. For near-term safety, Shirley recommends a rotating service plan in which two space shuttle orbiters are in service while a third is being stripped down to the bolts and refurbished. She says the space shuttle represents outdated technology, but proper maintenance procedures could address safety concerns. "Something prevented this particular problem from being resolved," Launius says of the Columbia tragedy and the possibility that President Bush will appoint an independent review panel to examine the catastrophe. Like the Challenger accident in 1986, he says, "there may be some institutional issues here, too." |
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