 The rooster crows. The sun comes up. Therefore, the rooster’s crowing causes the sun to come up. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc. Very few of us would believe this, but thousands of people believe that because some children with leukemia live near high-voltage power lines, the power lines must be causing their cancer. Stories about deadly invisible electrical fields sell newspapers and attract television viewers; scientists and engineers spouting physics equations don’t. Egos, reputations, and financial interests come into play, and a myth is born.
Why do government agencies allocate millions of dollars to research programs on cold fusion and homeopathic medicine? How can reputable scientists start from the same set of verifiable observations on global CO2 levels and make equally plausible arguments for diametrically opposed long-term global warming effects?
Robert Park, professor of physics at the University of Maryland and director of the Washington, DC, office of the American Physical Society, quotes Fox Mulder, a character on the television program The X Files, in his book Voodoo Science: The Road from Foolishness to Fraud: “I want to believe.”
The human drive to discover patterns is a powerful tool for survival, mastery of our environment, and creative inspiration. It is also the culprit behind many fiercely defended fallacies. If you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads every time, there is still a 50–50 chance of getting heads next time, no matter how strongly you believe you are due for tails. If you hit a home run on the day you wear your purple socks, you may or may not hit another home run the next time you wear those socks.
Add to the pattern-discovery drive the pressure to publish, the incentives of government grants, and the glare of the spotlight from the news media, and you have a recipe for bad science. The random fluctuation in the background noise turns into a glimmer of hope for a new discovery. The glimmer of hope migrates through the departmental grapevine and becomes an expectation that the discovery is real. The expectation is publicized, and it feeds a need or a fear held by the general public. The public wants to know more, and suddenly the scientist is under pressure to produce results. The pressure becomes an invitation to commit fraud.
Park has written an engaging, easy-to-read book for the benefit of the general public, but he doesn’t skimp on factual information or technical background. His analysis is critical without being polemical or patronizing. Park explains why so much “bad science” makes it into the spotlight while solid research remains obscure. He gives examples of how scientific debate and the peer review process can weed out easy-to-believe but wrong conclusions, and how circumventing this process can give bogus ideas unwarranted credibility.
Park also includes a chapter on “junk science”, which he defines as science that is specifically intended to fool or mislead nonscientists. He cites Daubert v Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals (based on a spurious allegation that Bendectin caused birth defects), the Dow Corning bankruptcy (caused by damage claims from silicone breast implant patients), and Joiner v General Electric Co., in which a former smoker used studies unrelated to his case to claim that PCB exposure accelerated the development of his lung cancer. In all these cases, paid witnesses testified to “theories of what could be so, with little or no supporting evidence”.
The next time your neighbor wants to invest $5000 in a “revolutionary new unlimited energy source”, tell him to invest $25 in this book first.
Voodoo Science: The Road from Foolishness to Fraud by Robert L. Park. Oxford University Press: New York, 2000; 230 pages; ISBN 0-19-513515-6; hardcover, $25.00.
Nancy K. McGuire is associate editor of Chemical Innovation.
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